I am always amused when campaign seasons roll around and experts flock in from campaigns and media telling us all what Iowans think. They even tell us and we look around wondering who the heck theyve been talking to.
First of all, the notion that Iowa is farmers is wrong; the majority of modern Iowans never set foot on a farm. The crunch of the 80s drastically reduced the already dwindling family farm structure as new regulations made it easier for corporate farms to gobble up the little guys. Most Iowans work in business, trades or manufacturing just like the rest of the nation. Of course the ag business is huge because of the cash that flows from it but that cash is in the hands of a few at an ever increasing rate. Many of the jobs based on agriculture have been taken over by illegals, farm hands, meat, poultry and egg facility jobs. In 1978 a friend earned $17.90/hr in a union packing house with full company benefits. During the Reagan years illegals began to creep in through loopholes and winks meant to destabilize unions. Now those jobs pay around $12/hr and you share cost on reduced benefits. Iowans arent happy about this but we cant get either party to talk about it because of donor money.
We may be fly-over country but we are drive-through country for trade and travelers as Americas busiest interstate highways, I-35 & I-80 meet and mix in Des Moines. This means the troubles of the distant mega-cities flows through. We are on the route for drug and gang influence from Dallas and KC to Minneapolis and LA to New York and Chicago. All meet in Des Moines and it shows. We are not isolated but in the center of the crosshairs. Our population is based in our larger cities and their suburbs and bedroom communities but candidates skip from small town to small town wearing new blue jeans and plaid shirts thinking they are getting over on a bunch of hayseeds. What they dont realize is many of those wrinkled old timers are worth millions in land alone and could buy them, give them away and be just fine. They are smart investors and many travel the globe in winters to escape our brutal climate. A higher than average number is military vets who have been across the world in deployment. The candidates dont know Iowans, neither do the pundits. We are political and our older citizens were living and breathing campaign details back when todays candidates were filling diapers.
Because of our early caucus date we have become special targets of party national committees and our state bodies have been corrupted more than most by that focus. All the big guns aim at us first and over the years they have worked behind the scenes building the machines they need to reach in from the outside and control the outcome of our caucuses. This time is the worst Ive seen. The result is our caucus system does not produce results that reflect the typical voter. They produce the winner of party gamesmanship, backroom deals and power struggles that reach into the roots of the operation right down to the doorstep of party organizers in our tiniest and most rural counties.
Listen to reporters now and they tell you Santorum won Iowa in 2012. What they forget to mention is the outcome was rigged for Romney and first reports gave Romney a clear Iowa win. That was real momentum. The truth did not come out until Romney built on his win and went on to win NH and SC. Then Iowa GOP officials suddenly discovered local precincts in a remote county had made paper errors on vote certification and Romney didnt win, Santorum did but by that time Romney was starting to snowball and no one was listening or asking questions. Hows THAT for corruption?
This is just the tip of the iceberg but the point is madeIowas first vote status has created a magnet for outside influences and the dirty tricks they conjure up to meet party boss goals. This season it is full steam ahead as the machine folks back Cruz, uniting all the establishment powers you are told despise him. On the other hand you have Trump who is getting support from outside the establishment; his strength is the average voter on the street, those who are supposed to create the outcome. National media keeps telling you Trump has no ground game here but he has been showing up all along ever since he announced and he has a lot of people spreading his message. The media avoids them. I cannot recall seeing so many young voters or non-voters ever taking interest in a GOP candidate the way they are all looking at Trump in search of someone to break up the old structure.
It comes down to this; Who will show up for our screwy caucus process and who will hope someone else does? The RINO teams and establishment party crews are getting the teams geared up for Cruz, will the Trump block of GOP party outsiders be able to compete against the old guard and their spider web of organization? We just dont know.
On the Dem side, Hillary is strong because she also has an entrenched team of party hacks backing her, we all know that. However, many I talk to are sick of her, tired of scandals and baggage and just dont like or trust her. Many Iowa Dems have family in the military and they prefer an option. The Dem strength in Iowa is based in our heavily populated areas surrounding our 3 major universities, the college towns. Bernie has done an excellent job of energizing the youth and that demographic was a key to Obama ousting Hillary in 08. He has a surprising number of young volunteer ground workers knocking on doors, meeting with groups and doing the hard sell right where it matters and those folks are very hard on Hillary. Hillary has some machine support, Bernie does too but Bernie has grass root strength I am not seeing reported accurately anywhere. His people are everywhere and Ive yet to see Hillary teams outside of the media events which our news outlets desperately try to make look bigger and more successful than they are. On the streets I suspect Bernie has a more commanding lead than anything the media will dare say.
So here we are, the vote draws near and a glaring problem for conservatives is on display but not mentioned. When we see events staged to reach out specifically for minority voters or the Millenials it is Democrats doing it 90% of the time. Trump has done it in Iowa but no one else has. Why do conservatives just surrender these large and influential voter blocks time after time without even trying? Look around nationally, how is the GOP directly showing up among these groups on the ground to explain how their message can benefit those voters? They dont, they are in full surrender and that explains a lot about their struggle. Trump sees it but he is alone.
Will I predict any outcomes yet? No. Too much can still happen before caucus and Iowans have learned the corruption within party machinery can and will create the result if they can figure out how. We do know what you see and hear about Iowa on the news or syndicated talk radio is fabricated spin. There is the truth, does it set you free or just add to the frustration with the old entrenched party games?
